INSTITUTIONAL AND METHODOLOGICAL FOUNDATIONS OF FUTURES EXCHANGE TRADING DEVELOPMENT IN UKRAINE
Abstract
The article examines institutional and methodological foundations of futures exchange trading development in Ukraine under conditions of martial law and ongoing European integration. The economic essence of a futures contract as a standardized exchange-traded instrument for price risk management is revealed, and its place within the system of derivative financial instruments is demonstrated through comparative analysis with forward contracts, swaps and options. Institutional features of the Ukrainian exchange trading model are examined in detail, including regulatory fragmentation prior to the adoption of the Law on Capital Markets and Organized Commodity Markets in 2021, the structural limitations of the derivatives segment caused by the absence of a central counterparty clearing infrastructure, and the consequences of martial law on organized market liquidity following the revocation of the Ukrainian Exchange license in June 2024. Classification criteria for futures contracts by underlying asset, settlement mechanism, maturity and purpose are systematized with reference to international best practices observed at CME Group, Euronext and regional emerging-market venues. The methodological foundations for futures price analysis and forecasting using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models are substantiated, with particular attention to the cost-of-carry framework, volatility clustering phenomena and specific limitations applicable to thin markets. Conditional futures price dynamics and volatility modelling is performed in MATLAB environment on simulated data calibrated to properties typical of agricultural futures, demonstrating the analytical potential of quantitative methods for applied price forecasting tasks in low-liquidity markets. An author’s conceptual model for phased restoration of the derivatives segment in Ukrainian exchange trading is proposed, integrating institutional, infrastructure and analytical blocks with sequential transition through regulatory-institutional, pilot launch, product expansion and analytical support stages. The practical value lies in concrete recommendations for the National Securities and Stock Market Commission, exchange operators, agricultural exporters and researchers investigating applied aspects of financial engineering in emerging markets undergoing systemic transformation.
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