IMPROVING METHODOLOGY MAKING MANAGEMENT DECISIONS USING MATHEMATICAL MODELING THE ECONOMY OF SMALL AND MEDIUM ENTREPRENEURSHIP

Abstract

The article proves that for implementation of innovative direction development, a new methodology of scientific and applied research and forecasting based on mathematical modeling and experiment using computer information systems to support management decisions, synthesis of modern numerical methods and a computer is needed. The components of system state vector must be determined as average values over the data of a large number process implementations. Estimates the required indicators obtain statistical stability in presence a large number realizations and can be taken with sufficient accuracy for practice as approximation the values sought components of system state vector. The implementation trading process is influenced by a large number of factors, but typical them are: competition, seasonality, state legislative framework, purchasing power of citizens, average wages, level of technology and technology. All this increases the need for a multifactorial analysis performance results and development of measures for increasing efficiency of small trading enterprise. At first stage modeling, using factor analysis, the main factors are identified; at second stage, on e basis of correlation analysis, it was proved that influence of factors on profit is significant and all main factors are used to build a regression model. At third stage of study, a regression model change in profit from the main factors was built, and it was proved that it has a sufficiently high level of accuracy and adequacy. The executed profit forecast allows us to make a number competent management decisions that contribute to an increase in profit a trading enterprise and ensure competitiveness in modern conditions. Use of mathematical modeling methods and adoption on their basis of informed decisions on management enterprise activities can be considered an important specific advantage of small and medium-sized businesses, since development and implementation a new system management technologies will allow efficiency of functioning entrepreneurial structures and ensure implementation a cost-oriented and oriented approach in business management.