ADAPTIVE RESILIENCE OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMY IN A BANI ENVIRONMENT: CONCEPTUAL FOUNDATIONS AND DETERMINANTS

Abstract

The growing interaction of military, financial, energy, demographic and technological shocks is changing the nature of instability faced by national economies. Cross-sectoral transmission of disturbances produces disproportionate consequences and reduces the reliability of conventional forecasting and stabilisation instruments. A BANI framework captures such conditions through brittleness, anxiety, nonlinearity and limited comprehensibility of economic processes. For Ukraine, wartime continuity of critical functions must be combined with recovery and structural modernisation, which makes a return to pre-war economic proportions neither sufficient nor always desirable. Accordingly, the research clarifies the economic content of adaptive resilience, systematises the determinants of its formation and substantiates their influence on the integrity and transformation of the national economy. A systems approach, comparative analysis, theoretical generalisation, synthesis and classification provide the methodological basis. Conceptual differentiation treats adaptation as a process of institutional, structural and functional change, adaptability as the capacity to implement such change, and resilience as the preservation of economic integrity under disturbances. Adaptive resilience is understood as the capacity of the national economy to maintain critical functions under prolonged nonlinear shocks, restore lost capabilities, modify structural proportions and regulatory mechanisms, and move towards a renewed development trajectory. Structural transformation consequently becomes a component of resilience rather than a deviation from the previous equilibrium. The proposed system covers institutional and regulatory, macrofinancial, structural and productive, innovation and technological, infrastructural, resource and energy, spatial and regional, human and socio-demographic, and external economic determinants. Interdependence among the determinants means that weakness in one area restricts adaptation in others, whereas imbalance increases vulnerability even when separate stabilisation resources remain available. International financial, technological and institutional support functions as an external compensatory resource, with its effectiveness determined by the internal capacity to direct the resources obtained towards recovery and structural renewal. Linking the preservation of systemic integrity with changes in the internal configuration of the national economy defines the conceptual contribution of the research. Economic policy can draw on the proposed determinants when setting priorities, coordinating short-term stabilisation with long-term modernisation, and developing indicators for assessing the adaptive resilience of Ukraine’s economy.