SHADOW ECONOMY: ESSENCE, SIGNIFICANCE, DEFINITION METHODS AND IMPACT ON THE STATE'S TAX POLICY
Abstract
The article examines such a global phenomenon as the shadow economy, which is an integral part of the functioning of any economic system. The article is devoted to a comprehensive study of the essence, historical development, and structural components of the shadow economy, as well as the analysis of its systemic impact on the formation of modern tax policy. The study aims to identify the relationship between the scale of the informal sector and the transformation of fiscal instruments, particularly in the context of global digitalization and the specific challenges faced by transitional economies like Ukraine. The main attention is paid to the influence of the shadow economy on the construction of the state's tax policy. The study was conducted on the basis of an analysis of domestic and foreign literary sources, statistical data. The work draws on statistical data from the World Bank, IMF, OECD, and national monitoring to compare global and Ukrainian trends. It was established that despite the large number of studies on this topic, interest in this phenomenon does not disappear, but rather increases. The research focuses on improving methods for measuring the shadow economy, its impact on the economic security of the state, as well as on assessing its scale and factors of formation. The definition of the shadow economy is clarified, its development over time is studied. Special attention is paid to Ukraine. The structure of the shadow economy, methods and measurements are considered. Statistical assessments of the shadow economy and their impact on tax policy are summarized. Special attention is paid to the analysis of the impact of the shadow economy on the effectiveness of tax policy, namely: the volume of tax revenues, the structure of taxes and tax administration tools. It has been established that effective shadow economy reduction requires a transition from purely restrictive measures to complex institutional reforms. Key tools for modern tax policy include digitalization, simplifying tax systems, and increasing trust in state institutions. For Ukraine, the path to formalization specifically involves reducing corruption and balancing control with the creation of a favorable business environment.
References
Franziska Ohnsorge Shu Yu. The Long Shadow of Informality: Challenges and Policies. World bank website. https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/publication/informal-economy.
Voronoi by Visual Capitalist. Visualizing the World's Shadow Economies. Voronoi website. 2025, May 13. URL: https://www.voronoiapp.com/crime/Visualizing-the-Worlds-Shadow-Economies--5018
Jianru Fu, Waqar Ahmad, Babar Hussain, Muhammad Waqas Khalid, Fatima Lambarraa-Lehnhardt & Muhammad Umair. Shadow economy, financial inclusion and economic growth Nexus: evidence from developing country. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications. 2025, November 14. URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-025-05995-2
Jonas B. Bunte, Les Stanaland. The shadow economy and foreign monetary transfers. Economic Analysis and Policy, 2025. No. 86, pp. 1285-1300. URL: https://www.scincedirect.com/science/article/pii/s0313592625001304
ILOSTAT. Statistics on the informal economy. ILOSTAT website. URL: https://ilostat.ilo.org/topics/informality
World bank. Informal Economy Database. World bank website. 2025, January 9. URL: https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/brief/informal-economy-database
Поплюйко Я.В., Мельник М.О. Оцінка рівня тіньової економіки України в період воєнного стану та визначення ключових факторів впливу. Статистика України. 2025. № 2. С. 17-29. URL: https://ir.nasoa.edu.ua/items/366e4b7c-c82d-44c9-8ab7-a003654e245b/full
Ясіновська І., Мазур М. Сутність та наслідки тіньової економіки: економіко-правовий аспект. Фінансовий простір. 2024. № 1-2 (53). URL: https://fp.lnu.edu.ua/index.php/fp/article/view/967
Schneider, F. New COVID‑related results for estimating the shadow economy in the global economy in 2021 and 2022. International Economics and Economic Policy, 2022. No. 19, pp. 299–313. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10368-022-00537-6
Milton Barossi-Filho & Ricardo Gonçalves Silva & Eliezer Martins Diniz. The Empirics of the Solow Growth Model: Long-Term Evidence. University Library of Munich, Germany. 2004. URL: https://ideas.repec.org/p/wpa/wuwpge/0406001.html
Шепель Т.В., Костов`ят Г.І. Тіньова економіка як загроза економічній безпеці України: методи вимірювання та оцінка масштабів. Інноваційна економіка. 2021. № 5-6. URL: https://inneco.org/index.php/innecoua/article/view/814
Ishchuk M. Assessing Ukraine`s Shadow Economy: Methods and Key Drivers. Problems of Modern Transformations, Series: Economics and Management. 2023. № 9. URL: https://reicst.com.ua/pmt/article/view/2023-9-03-06
Краус Н.М, Краус К.М., Шевчук В.С., Панченко А.О. Тіньова економіка в Україні: причини, масштаби та наслідки розвитку. Європейський науковий журнал економічних та фінансових інновацій. 2020. № 5. С. 79-87. URL: https://journal.eae.com.ua/index.php/journal/article/view/90
Regfollower.. OECD publishes report on tax administration digitalisation initiatives. 2025, June 23. Regfollower website. URL: https://regfollower.com/oecd-publishes-report-on-tax-administration-digitalisation-initiatives/
Загальні тенденції тіньової економіки в Україні у 2021 році. Мінекономіки: веб-сайт. URL: https://me.gov.ua/Documents/List?lang=uk-UA&id=e384c5a7-6533-4ab6-b56f-50e5243eb15a
Awasthi, R Brumby, J. Taxing the shadow economy. 2019, January 09. World bank website. URL: https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/governance/taxing-shadow-economy
Schneider, F. Enste, D. Hiding in the shadows: The Growth of the Underground Economy. 2002, April 16. International Monetary Fund website. URL: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/economic-issues/issues/2016/12/30/hiding-in-the-shadows-the-growth-of-the-underground-economy-15521
OECD. Shining Light on the Shadow Economy: Opportunities and Threats. 2017. OECD website. URL: https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2017/09/shining-light-on-the-shadow-economy-opportunities-and-threats_a9a92285/e0a5771f-en.pdf
Про затвердження Методичних рекомендацій розрахунку рівня тіньової економіки: Наказ Міністерства економіки України від 18.02.2009
№ 123. URL: https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/rada/show/v0123665-09#Text
T.P. Nazarenko, I.V. Suprunova, I. V. Shevchenko. Method of estimating the volume of the shadow economy. Financial and Credit activity problems of theory and practice. 2020. № 32. Р. 244-250. URL: https://fkd.net.ua/index.php/fkd/article/view/2884
The GlobalEconomy.com. Shadow Economy in OECD. The GlobalEconomy website. URL: https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/ranking/shadow_economy/OECD/
Дослідження тіньової економіки в Україні: майже чверть ВВП перебуває в тіні. Національний банк України: веб-сайт. URL: https://bank.gov.ua/ua/news/all/doslidjennya-tinovoyi-ekonomiki-v-ukrayini--mayje-chvert-vvp--abo-846-mlrd-griven--perebuvaye-v-tini
IBI Rating Rating agency. How much money does Ukraine lose due to the shadow economy? IBI Rating Rating agency website. Available at: https://ibi.com.ua/EN/ratings-kommentarii/skilki-groshej-vtrachaye-ukrajna-cherez-nelegalnu-ekonomiku.html
OECD. (2025, May 6). OECD Economic Surveys: Ukraine 2025.
OECD website. URL: https://www.oecd.org/content/oecd/en/search.html?q=Ukraine+2025&orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-languages%3Aen
Corruption in Ukraine. (2025, December 30). The Shadow Economy of Ukraine. Corruption Ukraine website. URL: https://corruption.com.ua/the-shadow-economy-of-ukraine/
Franziska Ohnsorge Shu Yu. The Long Shadow of Informality: Challenges and Policies. World bank website. Available at: https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/publication/informal-economy
Voronoi by Visual Capitalist. (2025, May 13) Visualizing the World's Shadow Economies. Voronoi website. Available at: https://www.voronoiapp.com/crime/Visualizing-the-Worlds-Shadow-Economies--5018.
Jianru Fu, Waqar Ahmad, Babar Hussain, Muhammad Waqas Khalid, Fatima Lambarraa-Lehnhardt & Muhammad Umair (2025, November 14). Shadow economy, financial inclusion and economic growth Nexus: evidence from developing country. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications. Available at: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-025-05995-2
Jonas B. Bunte, Les Stanaland. (2025). The shadow economy and foreign monetary transfers. Economic Analysis and Policy, no. 86, pp. 1285-1300. Available at: https://www.scincedirect.com/science/article/pii/s0313592625001304
ILOSTAT. Statistics on the informal economy. ILOSTAT website. Available at: https://ilostat.ilo.org/topics/informality
World bank. (2025, January 9). Informal Economy Database. World bank website. Available at: https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/brief/informal-economy-database
Popliuiko Ya.V., & Melnyk M.O. (2025) Otsinka rivnia tinovoi ekonomiky Ukrainy v period voiennoho stanu ta vyznachennia kliuchovykh faktoriv vplyvu [Assessment of the level of the shadow economy of Ukraine during the period of martial law and identification of key influencing factors]. Statystyka Ukrainy - Statistics of Ukraine, no. 2. pp. 17-29.
Yasinovska I., Mazur M. (2024) Sutnist ta naslidky tinovoi ekonomiky: ekonomiko-pravovyi aspekt [The essence and consequences of the shadow economy: economic and legal aspects]. Finansovyi prostir - Financial space, no. 1-2 (53). Available at: https://fp.lnu.edu.ua/index.php/fp/article/view/967
Schneider, F. (2022). New COVID‑related results for estimating the shadow economy in the global economy in 2021 and 2022. International Economics and Economic Policy, no. 19, pp. 299–313. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10368-022-00537-6
Milton Barossi-Filho & Ricardo Gonçalves Silva & Eliezer Martins Diniz. (2004). The Empirics of the Solow Growth Model: Long-Term Evidence. University Library of Munich, Germany. Available at: https://ideas.repec.org/p/wpa/wuwpge/0406001.html
Shepel T.V., & Kostov`iat H.I. (2021) Tinova ekonomika yak zahroza ekonomichnii bezpetsi Ukrainy: metody vymiriuvannia ta otsinka masshtabiv [Shadow economy as a threat to the economic security of Ukraine: measurement methods and assessment of the scale]. Innovatsiina ekonomika - Innovative economy, no. 5-6. Available at: https://inneco.org/index.php/innecoua/article/view/814
Ishchuk M. (2023) Assessing Ukraine`s Shadow Economy: Methods and Key Drivers. Problems of Modern Transformations, Series: Economics and Management, no. 9. Available at: https://reicst.com.ua/pmt/article/view/2023-9-03-06
Kraus N.M, Kraus K.M., Shevchuk V.S., & Panchenko A.O. (2020) Tinova ekonomika v Ukraini: prychyny, masshtaby ta naslidky rozvytku [Shadow Economy in Ukraine: Causes, Scale and Consequences of Development]. Yevropeiskyi naukovyi zhurnal ekonomichnykh ta finansovykh innovatsii - European Scientific Journal of Economic and Financial Innovations, no. 5. pp. 79-87. Available at: https://journal.eae.com.ua/index.php/journal/article/view/90
Regfollower. (2025, June 23). OECD publishes report on tax administration digitalisation initiatives. Regfollower website. Available at: https://regfollower.com/oecd-publishes-report-on-tax-administration-digitalisation-initiatives/
Ministry of Economy. General trends in the shadow economy in Ukraine in 2021. Ministry of Economy website. Available at: https://me.gov.ua/Documents/List?lang=uk-UA&id=e384c5a7-6533-4ab6-b56f-50e5243eb15a
Awasthi, R & Brumby, J. (2019, January 09). Taxing the shadow economy. World bank website. Available at: https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/governance/taxing-shadow-economy
Schneider, F. & Enste, D. (2002, April 16). Hiding in the shadows: The Growth of the Underground Economy. International Monetary Fund website. Available at: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/economic-issues/issues/2016/12/30/hiding-in-the-shadows-the-growth-of-the-underground-economy-15521
OECD. (2017). Shining Light on the Shadow Economy: Opportunities and Threats. OECD website. Available at: https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2017/09/shining-light-on-the-shadow-economy-opportunities-and-threats_a9a92285/e0a5771f-en.pdf
Pro zatverdzhennia Metodychnykh rekomendatsii rozrakhunku rivnia tinovoi ekonomiky: Nakaz Ministerstva ekonomiky Ukrainy [On approval of Methodological recommendations for calculating the level of the shadow economy: Order of the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine] 18.02.2009 No. 123. Available at: https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/rada/show/v0123665-09#Text
T.P. Nazarenko, I.V. Suprunova, & I. V. Shevchenko (2020). Method of estimating the volume of the shadow economy. Financial and Credit activity problems of theory and practice. No. 32. Рp. 244-250. Available at: https://fkd.net.ua/index.php/fkd/article/view/2884
The GlobalEconomy.com. Shadow Economy in OECD. The GlobalEconomy.com website. Available at: https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/ranking/shadow_economy/OECD/
National Bank of Ukraine. Study of the shadow economy in Ukraine: almost a quarter of GDP is in the shadows. National Bank of Ukraine website. Available at: https://bank.gov.ua/ua/news/all/doslidjennya-tinovoyi-ekonomiki-v-ukrayini--mayje-chvert-vvp--abo-846-mlrd-griven--perebuvaye-v-tini
IBI Rating Rating agency. How much money does Ukraine lose due to the shadow economy? IBI Rating Rating agency website. Available at: https://ibi.com.ua/EN/ratings-kommentarii/skilki-groshej-vtrachaye-ukrajna-cherez-nelegalnu-ekonomiku.html
OECD. (2025, May 6). OECD Economic Surveys: Ukraine 2025. OECD website. Available at: https://www.oecd.org/content/oecd/en/search.html?q=Ukraine+2025&orderBy=mostRelevant&page=0&facetTags=oecd-languages%3Aen
Corruption in Ukraine. (2025, December 30). The Shadow Economy of Ukraine. Corruption Ukraine website. Available at: https://corruption.com.ua/the-shadow-economy-of-ukraine/
Copyright (c) 2026 О.М. Черновол, О.М. Гай

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

