STRESS TESTING AS A TOOL OF STATE ANTI-CRISIS MANAGEMENT

Abstract

The article is devoted to substantiating the role of stress testing as a key instrument of state anti-crisis management in the context of increasing macroeconomic instability and the growing influence of internal and external risks on the financial system. The relevance of the study is driven by the need for timely identification of potential threats to the stability of financial institutions, improvement of regulatory decision-making, and the formation of an effective system of preventive crisis response. The purpose of the paper is to determine the potential of stress testing for assessing the ability of financial institutions to operate under shock conditions, as well as to establish how the results of such assessments can be integrated into state regulatory practice. The methodological framework of the study includes methods of economic analysis, scenario modelling, system generalization, forecasting, and comparative assessment. The use of these methods made it possible to examine the behaviour of financial institutions under various macroeconomic scenarios, evaluate the sensitivity of their key indicators to changes in critical parameters, and identify potential vulnerability areas. The modelling carried out allowed outlining possible scenarios for changes in the structure of capital, liquidity, and financial resources under intensifying stress conditions. The results demonstrate that stress testing is an effective tool for forming an objective understanding of the level of resilience of financial institutions, enabling early identification of risks before they materialize and supporting the development of well-founded managerial decisions. The study confirms that the application of stress tests makes it possible to determine the need for adjustments in capital management policies, reassessment of asset structure, optimization of the resource base, and strengthening of risk management systems. The practical value of the article lies in identifying opportunities for using stress testing as an instrument capable of enhancing the effectiveness of state financial supervision, improving crisis forecasting mechanisms, and reinforcing financial stability. The proposed approaches may be utilized by state authorities in developing anti-crisis policies, as well as by financial institutions to improve internal risk management systems and increase their adaptive capacity in conditions of uncertainty.