RISK ASSESSMENT METHODS OF PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP IN HEAT POWER INDUSTRY AND MEASURES TO ELIMINATE THEIR CONSEQUENCES

Abstract

In the field of utilities that provide services of general economic interest in Ukraine (ensure the viability of the city), the goal should be the use of public-private partnership instruments to attract strategic investors, with the prospect of privatizing enterprises that are not a natural monopoly. The process of risk management, continuing during the implementation of public-private partnership, provides, together with the identification of risks, determination of ways to prevent their occurrence, elimination of negative consequences and transfer of risks, including insurance, acceptance of risks, their assessment. We are talking about obtaining permits and licenses, operating risks, design and construction (reconstruction, improvement, and repair), financial and macroeconomic, social and political, other unforeseen circumstances that have a high level of impact. The article is devoted to the study of the state influence on the development of public-private partnerships in the energy sector of Ukraine and the systematization of qualitative methods (assessment of the probability of the occurrence of an event, action or inaction and the degree of its impact, defined as high, medium or low) and the stages of sensitivity analysis, the Monte Carlo method, scenarios analysis options for quantitative assessment of risks accompanying cooperation between the state and business in the production, transportation and supply of heat energy and hot water supply, principles and methods of risk management that have a significant impact on the decision to implement a public-private partnership or on its implementation. In particular, attention is paid to the statistical method, which consists in determining the level of threat of a risk, depending on the degree of probability of its occurrence; the expediency of costs, indicating the determination of the level of threat of the risk of exceeding the amount of funds that are planned to be spent during the fulfillment of the terms of the contract, in comparison with the previously established and agreed upon with the partners; expert assessment, which allows a group of experts to assess risks and, based on the results of such an assessment, determine the risk with the highest level of threat of its occurrence.