DEVELOPMENT OF AN ADAPTIVE MODEL FOR STATE MANAGEMENT OF UKRAINE’S ENERGY SECURITY IN THE MEDIUM TERM, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT MILITARY AND GLOBAL CHALLENGES

Abstract

The relevance of this study stems from the radical transformations taking place in the global energy system, driven by geopolitical instability, intensifying competition for energy resources, and the accelerating transition to a low-carbon economy. For Ukraine, this issue takes on particular significance amid full-scale armed aggression, which has caused massive destruction of energy infrastructure and disrupted the stability of energy supply. Energy security is becoming a key element of national security and a factor in the country’s economic resilience. At the same time, dependence on external energy markets is growing, increasing vulnerability to external shocks. Under these conditions, the need to improve state management of the energy sector, taking into account both military and global challenges, takes on particular importance; this necessitates the development of new approaches to strategic planning and the formation of adaptive management models. This article examines the theoretical, methodological, and practical foundations for developing an adaptive model of state governance of Ukraine’s energy security in the medium term, taking into account military and global challenges. The relevance of this study stems from the critical impact of armed aggression, the destruction of energy infrastructure, the high volatility of global energy markets, and the transformation of the global energy security architecture. The paper systematizes approaches to understanding energy security as a component of a state’s national security and justifies the need to transition from static management models to adaptive ones capable of responding promptly to crisis and uncertain situations. The institutional mechanisms of state governance of Ukraine’s energy sector are analyzed, and their key limitations in wartime conditions are identified, including fragmented coordination, insufficient strategic forecasting, and dependence on external energy resources. A conceptual adaptive model of state governance of energy security is proposed, based on the principles of flexibility, multi-level governance, risk-oriented planning, and integration with the European energy system. Particular attention is paid to a scenario-based approach to medium-term planning and mechanisms for enhancing the resilience of energy infrastructure in the face of hybrid threats.